After the meeting of the European Central Bank suggesting a round screw monetary beginning August, last Thursday, and the week of before, US Federal Reserve, which has increased its interest rate, it is the turn of the Bank of the Japan (BoJ) to capture the attention of the operators. On 13 and 14 July, it will hold its monetary policy Committee, which could put an end to its policy of zero rates, for the first time in six years. Very low, the upward revision of the forecast of GDP growth for the year 2006-2007 by the Japanese Government, Friday, argues, in any case, in this sense. Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said that the end of deflation was in sight.
"The normalisation of monetary policy is no longer doubt but the timing remains uncertain, indicates the team change of BNP Paribas. Our central scenario provides an abandonment of the policy of zero rates in August, we believe that there is a probability of 50 for the Bank Act in July. If the BoJ has suggested this week that there is no reason to expect more, it could trigger a rebound in the yen. "For Carole Laulhere, strategist change to Société Générale,"more that the gesture, it would be a statement of the institution announcing the beginning of a monetary tightening cycle which could be positive for the yen. "
Possible depreciation of the yen
Barclays Capital believes that the fact of taking into account by the market at the end of the zero rate policy, on the one hand, and the very gradual side of planned policy, on the other hand, the support of the decision of the BoJ in the yen will remain limited. In the next few weeks, it should, according to the strategy team change of the institution, to depreciate against the euro and the dollar, affected by the geopolitical tensions in North Korea. However, against the two currencies, the Japanese currency rose Friday. 113,93 Yen for 1 dollar, had to be Friday night against 115.16 Eve and 114,47 yen, the previous Friday. At the same time, the euro has advanced beyond 1.28 dollar 1,2824 Friday night against 1,2759 Thursday, and 1,2785 a week earlier.
The greenback has suffered from the publication of the monthly employment report in the United States. The US economy generated 121.000 jobs in June, below the 175.000 creations expected by the consensus. The disappointment is high, that ADP estimates, Wednesday, suggested a particularly dynamic labour market. The average hourly wage, on the other hand, has risen beyond the forecast (0.5 vs. 0.3 expected). The publication of these statistics has been lowering expectations of a rebound in the Fed rates. Futures contracts indicated that the operators betting on a rise in August with a 54 probability, against 67 percent the day before.
As a result, the bonds are relaxed. The U.S. 2-year rate lost 3 points to 5,175 and the 10 years 5 basis points to 5,130. In Europe, the French OAT 10 years declined by 5 points to 4,067 and German rates assigned to 4,057.
More than 1300 cities have already signedWe had the impression that the games were madeIt is not question of close Monéteau plantBut the matter goes beyond the strict familyBetter it has almost a chance for the ContinentAnd this figure could go down to 80 in 2010Delays ranging from a few days in Spain in six weeks at JapanBut without the last coup as some expectedIn particular 12 have checkbook or card paymentToday the Korean film is formed in industry
