But stick to ce attestation is not enough

And if the revolutions of the Arab world ended up doing move China Twenty-one years after the massacre of Tian' Tiananmen Square, that is the question that arise more and Western observers. It is not surprising that elle resurface: see topple the political foundations of the Colossus to the meteoric rise would no doubt a relief for all of the democracies in Europe or America, destabilised before that China's authoritarian model has been, so far, devilishly effective. This is because such ideological bias comes parasitize the debate that it seems essential to address the case of China with caution. Despite undoubted tensions in Chinese society, there is nothing to postulate the existence of insurrectionary risk. But, paradoxically, it proves that the Chinese power is not wrong to be afraid.

The future of the regime will depend on many of the degree of inequality in Chinese society. It currently reaches 0.47, according to the Gini coefficient, which measures. It is more than the bar of the 0.4, considered as potentially dangerous. This extreme diversity of the socio-economic levels was, until now, a sine qua non of Chinese development: China would not become the second world economic power without its inexpensive labor. However, today, the poor face inflation which crops substantially their purchasing power. Where can we leave the poor poorer when the rich are already extremely rich Evidence of the importance of the topic, the Chinese Premier has made it his main theme in its media interventions.

The corruption of local officials did not arrange things. It causes a noticeable frustration among people. This situation generates tensions. With a very tight control of media, Beijing manages to avoid that the manifestations or revolts, always localized, are spreading. But they are common, and the fact that the Government has ceased, for several years, to publish the number, gives specifically suggests that they are on the increase. A few months ago users had engaged in a comprehensive census of places of resistance to malicious expropriations, and had thus prepared a map museums of China which has been a real success on the Web.

But stick to ce attestation is not enough. Unequal, the growing Chinese Of course. But of even inclusive. More than 300 million people out of poverty: this is another reality that should not be obscure. Unlike Egypt, China is not among its young graduates, armies of unemployed. In the country, have a good degree more often is the guarantee of benefit from the system. In addition, the one-child policy proves to be a chance for power. The youth is much less neo... that it is not bloated. Attempts to rally in Beijing mobilized, for the time being, more police and protesters. It does not today, floats in the streets of the capital, the fragrance of aspiration to freedom that describe those who have lived on June 4, 1989 in Beijing. For evidence, this conversation surprise recently in a group of thirty, one explaining to others that dictators were overthrown in the Arab world. The conclusion of one of them before the violence experienced by these countries "All the same, how lucky to be in China."

For several weeks, yet it is clear that the power was concerned. In the press, the editos to respond, calling into question the notion of justice, "Western" concept, when another calls for deep reforms, to keep one account "radical changes" that have affected society. The President, Hu Jintao, recently urged the party cadres to do everything to reduce inequalities. More recently, it is the repressive apparatus which has been strengthened, particularly for foreign journalists, of which one was even beaten.

Why such concern Probably because the events of the Arab world have acted as a shock in Beijing. More specifically, they seem to have made more lively than ever the debate between proponents of openness and those who consider, on the contrary, that it would mean decline, in the image of the USSR in the 1980s. The first were found isolated, some months ago, when their Chief leader, the Prime Minister, Wen Jiabao, had advocated on CNN for political reforms, and had been censored in its own country. Today, the legitimacy of their position is strengthened. In fact, if the probability of a riot of hunger appears to be relatively low as long as the economy remains on good rails, one of a growing distance between the power and the people, she is very strong. As Chinese society modernizes, the anachronism of its political apparatus appears more and more patent. How to become a society advanced, responsive to the world and its new technological tools when they are locked How to prevent a population more in more travelling to aspire to what she observed elsewhere How to develop creativity in a system where the ideas are framed That Beijing likes it or not, China today is the following: hire from now a progressive political reform, or exposure to a divorce with the people, who, in the long term, could prove explosive.