Fall of the dollar and progression of the bond, including American markets, characterized a volatile and particularly animated session. The greenback dropped significantly. The euro thus rose from 1,2450 to 1,2537 dollar after an incursion to 1,2550. In the book, the decline was also pronounced, opening the book to 1,7870 dollar to finish at 1,8027 after a peak at 1,8050.
The speech before a commission of the Congress of the new "maestro" of the Federal Reserve (see also page 6) caused these sudden movements. Ben Bernanke argued for an economy whose prospects are "good" to keep economic growth at a strong pace in the near future despite the risks of inflation that remain, particularly with oil prices soaring. However, "it seems reasonable to predict that growth will slow to a more sustainable pace during the year", he said, noting that "at some point in the future, the monetary policy Committee may decide to take no action to one or more of its meetings, and to have more time to obtain relevant information about the Outlook for the economy."
This last sentence was immediately interpreted by the market as inevitable sign of a break in rising interest rates after acquired increased by 0.25 in May. Apparently, the Fed seems in sentence to predict the evolution of the situation and wants to convince investors that it is time to avoid the mistake of a hardening too hard. His concern is to avoid a runaway of interest rates and particularly to assure a more nervous bond market.
He saw in it an opportunity to regain ground after hard sessions, forgetting the passage that Ben Bernanke made it clear that a pause in monetary tightening was not synonymous with a final judgment. After this announcement, the rate 2 American years was suddenly from 4.99 to 4.90 to stabilize at that level later in the day. For its part, the performance of the loan of State 10 years closes 5.12 to 5.05.
Return of inflation
Moreover, the American authorities, by the voice of the Treasury, rated "positive" the decision of the Chinese Central Bank noted, yesterday, the rate of interest on the loans a year for the first time since October 2004 (see box opposite).
European bond markets rose yesterday but significantly less than their American counterparts. ALO 10-year yields and the German Bund fell so 3 basis points, respectively 4 to 3.96. European investors had welcomed the continuation of the improvement of employment German. In Germany, the unemployment rate decreased to 11.5 in April, against 12 percent a month earlier. What comfort in his opinion the Governor of the Central Bank of Greece, Nicholas Garganas, a member of the Board of Governors of the European Central Bank (ECB), which stated at approximately the same time the need to expect "a new increase of the interest rates in the euro area", including to address the risk of resumption of inflation. Citing work of the European Monetary Institute, he found that an increase in "10 dollars per barrel of oil would cause an increase in the average inflation in the eurozone of 0.16 point and a decrease in the rate of growth of 0.1 point."
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