In the last straight line for the preparation of the budget, plus a day passes without that the Executive puts emphasis on the improvement of the situation. Friday, during a visit on the site of PSA Peugeot Citroën to Sochaux, François Fillon said that the gross domestic product (GDP) growth should reach "at least 1.5 " this year. The day before, in "Les echos", it was the Minister of the Budget, François Baroin, indicating that growth would be "probably somewhat above" of the official forecast of the Government ( 1.4), "which supports the prospect of an increase in the activity of 2 next year."
This displayed serenity contrasts with the required speech Thursday by the Organization for cooperation and development economic. The OECD expects a net slowdown in the recovery of the countries of the g-7 by the end of the year, stating qu ' "it is still difficult to say if the shortness of the recovery is temporary". The France would be particularly affected, "with a growth of 0.2 in the third quarter from the quasi preceding and which would be stable in the fourth quarter", said Hervé Boulhol, Economist for the France. Models that did turn the OECD lead to a forecast of 1.3 for 2010, lower than 1.7 anticipated late May. "In the end, I think that we will be between the two," says the Economist.
It may therefore not frankly disrupt the forecast of the Government for this year, but would clearly less momentum to begin 2011.
In his memo on the economy of June Insee certainly anticipated a slowdown in the second part of the year but much less pronounced ( 0.4 on the third and fourth quarters).
Heterogeneous forecasts
Since the publication of the GDP in the second quarter ( 0.6) came to strengthen the recovery. "There is a fairly clear recovery of domestic demand signals: the economy begins to create jobs, réembraye productive investment, household consumption continues to grow, explains Sandrine Duchêne, head of the Department of environment of the Insee.". But at the same time, we see come a slowdown in global activity, related notably to the United States where the effects of the end of the stimulus measures should be felt by the end of the year and, more marginally, by a less dynamism of the emerging countries. The question now is when this downturn will come to affect Europe and with what magnitude. "On this point, the response of the economists diverges, which explains the high heterogeneity of the forecast for the end of the year and the next year (between 1 and 2.7 expected for 2011, with an average of 1.5, according to the data transmitted in early August to the Consensus Forecast). "Our forecast of 2 for 2011 is prudent and reasonable, considered to be on the side of Bercy." It corresponds to what is experienced on average in the last three quarters in annualized pace. "" We are vigilant on the international environment, which is a little settled this summer, but figures released so far in France do not state a hole of air as evidenced by industrial production read below ", continues on. The investigation of conditions in the industry that will publish the Insee September 23 will give an idea of the expectations of business for the coming months. In July, their personal production prospects had deteriorated a little.
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